...courtesy of (of all things) a reader comment on a
Roger Ebert movie review:
Imagine flipping a coin over and over. For each toss, the odds are fifty-fifty that it will come up heads (a one-in-two chance). The odds of getting two heads in a row is a one-in-two-to-the-power-of-two chance, or one-in-four. Five heads in a row is 1:2^5, or one-in-thirty-two. A hundred heads? 1:2^100, or roughly one in 1.3 trillion trillion trillion (thank Gates for the little calculator program on my computer). A creationist would claim that all the lucky chances that evolution requires is like getting not one, not five, but millions upon millions of heads in a row.
"But the creationists are forgetting something. Evolution ISN'T random, as they often claim. It's selected...What if, after every toss, we had the option of not counting it? What if we were allowed to simply discard every toss that came up tails? Now, given the ability to select, how long would it take to rack up a hundred heads in a row? About two hundred throws.
"Once you understand the concept of selection, and how it applies to evolution, you realize that what was thought to be vanishingly unlikely actually becomes virtually inevitable."
What a great way of expressing such a complicated thing!
As long as I'm getting clarity from strange sources - I'd go on to say this analogy meshes nicely with a game I own called
Evo. The scoring mechanic of Evo reward species that maintain a high population over time. The central game mechanic exterminates life that cannot survive its changing environment.
And there it is.
Mutation flips the coin - the environment tosses out the results it doesn't like.
Color vision is the equivalent to flipping heads a thousand times in a row? No problem.
The black & white vision predator lives well until prey until they've killed off all the high contrast prey. (Flip, tails: discard). Enter that one color vision predator who feasts on the prey that (in color) is easy to find. (Flip, heads: keep).
Over time - the black & white vision predator leaves less offspring behind (Flip, tails: discard)
-while the color vision predator produces more offspring - (Flip, heads: keep) (Flip, heads: keep) (Flip, heads: keep)
And so on. Pretty easy to get to a thousand that way.