Wednesday, July 13, 2011

Nothing is Written

With the US women beating Brazil in spectacular fashion, there's a certain frustration that comes from watching the coverage (my local paper put the win in the sidebar, next to huge front page photo of some minor golf tournament) or listening to the pat recitations of "buzzer beater" by news anchors who got their lines only seconds before.
US Women win at the world cup after a late goal by star forward Abby Wambach... and in Golf today
Yeah, that's one way of looking at it. But I much prefer Ian Darke screaming incredulity into the mic "It's been a near miracle, this!!", or Julie Foudy bursting with pride and admiration for Rapinoe's cross "What a ball!

Because this is the kind of thing that deserves to be related by someone who appreciates how mind-bogglingly unlikely the win was.

Not because the US team isn't good - they're fricking brilliant - but because the World Cup is famous for chewing up good teams and spitting them out like so much garbage.

The cup is pitiless - it doesn’t care if you deserve it.

Exhibit A is the infrequency of the finals. Not every year - every fourth year. Like all sport - speed, strength and youth are rewarded. But in the cup - if you wash out you're going to have to claw your way back when you're four years older.

Plenty of deserving people never get a shot. They're ready, but their team isn't. Or they get a shot - but their coach is an idiot. Or they catch a booking that ends the only chance they'll ever get.

It doesn't have to be them either, any teammate can bring the team down.

Your star player is kicked out? Too bad, play with 10.

Oh, but they didn't deserve it? Too bad, play with 10.

Did the ref blow a call that could have been made from orbit?

Too bad, at the World Cup instant replay is only for salting open wounds. Look how wrong that was...Now rewind and do it again. Now go home and wait four more years.


Exhibit B is timing.
Waumbach's equalizes in the 122nd fricking minute. US audiences are conditioned to expect last minute heroics from years of watching games where the players and coaches have incredible influence on how long the game lasts. In football and basketball they can save time. Numerous options exist to stop the clock - making the game last longer and increasing the likelihood that a last gasp game changer will occur.

In soccer, you can't save time. Only the ref can. If you're losing, your opponent (unless they are stupid) will kick long, slow arcing balls into the corners. They'll dribble in a circle in the corner - daring you to foul them or (worse) give them a corner kick.

Late equalizers can and do occur in soccer - but they are vastly more improbable than in other sports.

Exhibit C is the PK tie-breaker.

As mind-bogglingly awesome as the US comeback against Brazil was, the soccer gods are more than capable of ignoring the US team's guts, effort and pedigree. Two US players slip or shank their shot and suddenly all their team's prior valor is worthless.

PKs are hugely dramatic - but they have no relationship to which side played better, or worked harder, or deserved it more.

Which isn't to take anything away from the US team. Quite the opposite.

I wanted to point out that for once a talented, hardworking, deserving team was pushed to the absolute limit and did - in fact - get what they deserved: a storybook victory on a global stage.

And they were our team.


In soccer, that's not improbable, or miraculous - it's unheard of.

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