Gen. Odom on the Surge

We keep hearing over and over again about how the surge is working, how violence is down and how life in Iraq is getting better.

After all, the Sunnis are now on our side - that's has to be good, right?

(Frm Director of the NSA under President Regan) Gen. William Odom begs to differ:

(via Nieman Watchdog)

Their break with al Qaeda should give us little comfort. The Sunnis welcomed anyone who would help them kill Americans, including al Qaeda. The concern we hear the president and his aides express about a residual base left for al Qaeda if we withdraw is utter nonsense. The Sunnis will soon destroy al Qaeda if we leave Iraq.

[snip]
Let me emphasize that our new Sunni friends insist on being paid for their loyalty. I have heard, for example, a rough estimate that the cost in one area of about 100 square kilometers is $250,000 per day. And periodically they threaten to defect unless their fees are increased. You might want to find out the total costs for these deals forecasted for the next several years, because they are not small and they do not promise to end. Remember, we do not own these people. We merely rent them. And they can break the lease at any moment. At the same time, this deal protects them to some degree from the government’s troops and police, hardly a sign of political reconciliation.

Now let us consider the implications of the proliferating deals with the Sunni strongmen. They are far from unified among themselves. Some remain with al Qaeda. Many who break and join our forces are beholden to no one. Thus the decline in violence reflects a dispersion of power to dozens of local strong men who distrust the government and occasionally fight among themselves. Thus the basic military situation is far worse because of the proliferation of armed groups under local military chiefs who follow a proliferating number of political bosses.
This can hardly be called greater military stability, much less progress toward political consolidation...

When it comes to Iraq, this same administration that blocks medical coverage for underinsured children has always had one fall back solution: throw money at it.

• Iraq economy needs a boost? Carpet bomb them with cash. We'll worry about receipts later.
• Political cost of large troop deployments too high? Send in the high priced mercenaries. Never mind we pay them ten times what we'd pay our soldiers. Politically, it's free!

And now: Sunni extremists got you down? Write them a check! We can re-brand them as the Sons of Iraq - the shinier, happier gunman for a new Iraq!

If you pay them enough, and give them enough weapons, you can get them to bump their other enemies ahead of yours in their sh!tlist. Sooner or later, they'll get back to killing Americans, but by then it'll be some other administration's problem.

This is hardly news, but can we finally have an intelligent discussion of what is and isn't happening as a result of the surge?: