What Cease Fire?

The Long War answers:

The Mahdi Army cease-fire is all but dead, as the Mahdi Army has openly resisted the Iraqi government's attempts to assert control in Sadrist strongholds in Baghdad, Basrah, and the South. Sadr admitted his political movement issued orders to attack both US and Iraqi troops and has called for Iraqi soldiers and police to desert their units.

It's hard to know where to be on this issue. On the one hand - US and Iraq have needed to take this guy out for a very long time. Earlier restraint has come back to haunt them as Sadr has spun his earlier confrontations with the army as victories.

In that mindset. They should flatten him. The idea that another armed power will hold territory within a country's border is just an anathema to a modern state. The state controls the administration of violence within its borders, period.

On the other hand, I don't know that another Fallujah (which is what it would take) is something that will help things at this point. You surround these urban centers and pummel the Mahdi army into dust - you are going to kill a lot of Iraqis.

Sadr is believed to be in Iran, so no matter how well the battle goes there's no chance you take him out. You can reduce his militia's fighting strength - but it's not clear that these losses would be hard to replace. If his self styled army was composes of highly trained fighters, it would take time to find replacements - but it sure appears that the bulk of these forces are just men with guns. Easy to lose, easy to replace.

To me, that's Iraq in a nutshell. Two bad choices. Which to take?