Mumbai: Nothing new except the number

Here we go again.

 

This time, we don't have a gunman - we have gunmen.
Instead of a determined amateur - we have determined combatants. And there are international consequences.

Sadly, virtually everything else is the same.

The breathless live reporting is over - and we can get to the facts of what happened.

The Mumbai gunmen, once described as merciless professionals flawlessly executing their plan, are now becoming mortal with emerging reports of missed targets and improvised tactics.

There will be a lot said about how these men have done something unprecedented.

• 1972 Lod airport massacre: three gunmen massacre 24 people and wound almost eighty before security forces stop them.
  
  
• 1973 Attack on Pan Am 101: Five gunmen destroy an airliner using phosphorus bombs. 32 are killed and the gunmen escape in a hijacked Lufthansa jetliner.
  
  
• 1985 Rome and Vienna airport attacks 18 people killed, almost 140 wounded.

Like the Mumbai gunmen, these men in these attacks sought to kill others until they were dead.
Their specific motivations, weaponry and training are beside the point.

They came ready to fight - and it took awhile for the security forces to get organized.
In the intervening moments - the gunmen killed anyone they could find.

At Lod, Rome and Vienna - security forces were there in minutes. All of these attacks took place in areas that had on-site security.

In the case of Mumbai - that interval was 60 hours. Mumbai security forces are (by all accounts) not well equipped.

The Mumbai gunmen picked targets that would not have significant on-site security. They killed who they could - and went to ground until they were overwhelmed.

Much will be made of their use of technology - but if the reports are accurate, they were keeping in contact with each other and listening to what the news was saying. Both of those activities stem from having access to portable communications and wireless.

What's my point?

There will be a lot of useless speculation about hotel security and police weaponry. We'll talk about security guards, metal detectors - all of it might help in other situations - but not against these guys.

These are guys who decide to pick up guns and go kill people. They will walk through your detector and kill your guard. You need a good phone and a working cellular backup. Strong doors and floorplans on file with the police might not be a bad thing either.

But the fact is -
If these guys get into your country, the body count will be determined by what target is picked, who is there, and how fast security forces can get there with numbers and firepower.

In these sorts of situations - you're hoping these guys pick a high value target - because it will have security and communications on site.

These whack jobs pick some isolated spot - there's no telling what they can do before somebody can call the cops.

Those two nutters in North Hollywood lasted 44 minutes. If their goal had been bodies instead of cash, that interval would have been more than enough for an American horror show.

Picture Mumbai's 10-man crew in this country (or any country), fanning out to 5 schools in some metro area.

And you just know somewhere, some group of madmen is watching the Mumbai coverage on television and taking notes - so they can do something worse.

Messed up.

Late edit:

Bruce Schneier says what I wished I'd said:

If there's any lesson in these attacks, it's not to focus too much on the specifics of the attacks. Of course, that's not the way we're programmed to think. We respond to stories, not analysis. I don't mean to be unsympathetic; this tendency is human and these deaths are really tragic. But 18 armed people intent on killing lots of innocents will be able to do just that, and last-line-of-defense countermeasures won't be able to stop them. Intelligence, investigation, and emergency response. We have to find and stop the terrorists before they attack, and deal with the aftermath of the attacks we don't stop. There really is no other way, and I hope that we don't let the tragedy lead us into unwise decisions about how to deal with terrorism.

We can't build fortress America, nor would we want to. The charlatans who push this or that "security device" are missing the point. The crazies need to be ferreted out before they pull the trigger. Outside of that, there's good emergency response and little else. 

(H/t Danger Room)