1,000,000 Gallons a Day

The WSJ is quoting two experts who put the leak rate for the Deepwater Horizon at between four and five times the current estimate of 5,000 barrels a day:

John Amos, a geologist who has worked as a consultant with companies such as BP, ExxonMobil Corp. and Royal Dutch Shell PLC on tracking and measuring oil spills from satellite data, said NOAA raised its estimates to 5,000 barrels a day after he and his colleagues published calculations that showed the original figures were far too low based on the NOAA data. Amos has also previously participated in a joint industry-NASA study using satellite imagines to detect and track oil slicks.

Mr. Amos said the 5,000 barrels a day is the "extremely low end" of their estimates. He said, based on NOAA maps, a more realistic figure is 20,000 barrels a day.

The same article puts that in perspective thusly:

Ian MacDonald, professor of oceanography at Florida State University who specializes in tracking ocean oil seeps from satellite imagery, said there may already be more than 9 million gallons of oil floating in the Gulf [as of April 30], based on his estimate of a 25,000 barrel-a-day leak rate. That's compared to 12 million gallons spilled in the Valdez accident.

Interior Department officials said it may take 90 days to cap the leaking well. If the 25,000 barrels a day is accurate and it leaks for 90 days, that's 2.25 million barrels or 94.5 million gallons.

25,000 Barrels/day
x 42 gallons/barrel
1,050,000 gallons per day

Exxon Valdez was 12,000,000 gallons

Deepwater Horizon beats Exxon Valdez in 12 days - that'd be tomorrow.

I have to believe they'll beat six weeks to cap this thing. The NYT is posting some details on what is going to be attempted.

(H/t trainreq)