Tuesday, January 08, 2008

Retrograde motion

I'm hardly a fan of Jonathan Alter, but I couldn't agree more with this observation of his:
...hatred for the Clintons [is] the only thing the fractious GOP base can agree on this year. Sadly for her supporters, Hillary is indeed as much of a unifier as Obama—but of Republicans.
And that's it exactly. Her nomination would strengthen the right. Other Democratic nominees could encourage GOP voters to cross the aisle.

Especially this year.

The soul of the GOP appears to be in play - (evangelicals supporting Huckabee, libertarians supporting Ron Paul, and the corporate and establishment Republicans divided between Romney and McCain)

This is no time to unify these factions with Hillary.

Oh, sure - damning her for her effect on the opposition seems unfair, but there are plenty of substantive reasons to devalue her as a candidate.

-She's not drawing in the independents; the people the Dems MUST have if the evangelicals turn out for the GOP.
-She was just another wallflower when it came to Iraq.
-Every other word out of her mouth appears to have been crafted by her staff.

Even in her much maligned "emotional moment," she managed to close with her boilerplate dig against Obama's experience.

We all know these candidates have advisors and messages and talking points - but the mark of the quality candidate is that they can give you their platform and not sound like there is a hand up their ass making their mouth move.

That's the problem with Romney - not only is he devoid of any principle, he always sounds like he's getting his words from someone else. Like he's playing a part.

While I'm on Romney – this is what I think is so comically tragic about his campaign: He's fighting yesterday's war. Two or three years ago, somebody in his exploratory committee decided that a Regan-esque campaign would be a sure thing. Everybody liked Reagan, right? They counted on their sculpted candidate, their oceans of cash and the fact that Reagan would be a brand voters are comfortable with.

But Reagan was a long time ago – and Reagan nostalgia has no answers for the problems voters are looking at today. Reagan's persona of a charismatic cold warrior gives no comfort to people staring at quagmires at home and abroad.

The GOP has a huge black eye, thanks to the Bush administration – and there's a reason every candidate is parroting the word "change" any time they're in front of a microphone.

People want somebody to clean house. Romney's coming in and sounding just like the kind of Washingtonian we see on the news every night. Measured double-speak and pat phrases.

Hillary has the same problem. She started out (so it would seem) with the assumption that associating herself with her two-term husband would be a good thing – and it's not.

We want something new and she's brightening up an antique. "Look, look! A new coat of paint"

Unlike Romney, her coffers don't appear to be ready to go the distance. Huckabee and McCain will give Romney a bloody nose – but they will need money to keep going. Romney cashbox ensures he's going to be in the mix until February.

Hillary's making the same assurances, but you gotta wonder what kind of presence she will have on Super Tuesday if the polls are right about getting whomped in New Hampshire. It won't get better in South Carolina, so it's unclear where her firewall will be – where her cash goes to stop her slide.

All the usual criticisms of this process still apply: it's stupid that so few people are involved in thinning the herd of candidates; it's stupid that these early races are about attracting financing rather than voters; on and on - but this is the system that these candidates are playing in. I just don't see Hillary's backers lining up to write checks for somebody who consistently misses the top slot.

Romney can weather a lot, and it looks like he'll have to. McCain and Huckabee can tag team him all the way into Michigan. They'll have to fight for dollars though, and I don't think either of them can polish off Romney alone.

McCain's claim to being a maverick is a total sham, so it's a shame he's going to carry the torch of change for the GOP. As if. This man has sold his soul repeatedly in the past two years, with empty platitudes and sucking up -not only to the current administration, but to the religious right he'd formerly denounced.

In contrast to this sorry lot, the Democrats can field multiple candidates that at least offer the veneer of being a breath of fresh air - they shouldn't blow it on more of the same from Ms. Clinton.

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